White Paper by Mitch Kapor from OSA Foundation, PDF format (English)

This report is packed with information about why Linux is destined to become more and more prevalent in desktop usage. It also has a lot of predictions about the future development and adoption of Linux on the desktop. Although it is definitely a US-centric view (even though there is a section on international adoption), it also shows why Linux is more likely to be adopted outside the US first.

The conclusion is